2004 Playoff Preview

Continuing a tradition.........my humble predictions........

#1 Arizona vs. #8 St. Louis (season series: Arizona 5-1) –
The Diamondbacks beat the Cardinals in the 2003 World Series four games to none. Ironically, these teams meet again to open up the playoffs this year. Arizona and St. Louis are remarkably different - Arizona was #1 in team ERA and #13 in Runs Scored; St. Louis finished #17 in team ERA and #1 in Runs Scored. Should be an interesting series. . . .

Arizona had two 20 game winners this season - Randy Johnson (23-5 1.92 ERA and Curt Schilling 21-11 2.95 ERA). Pitching is vital in the playoffs and the Diamondbacks are ready to make another run at a championship with these two horses. The D-Backs finished a torrid 34-11 the final two months of the season. Arizona made a late season trade acquiring Eric Gagne, Al Leiter, Lew Ford and Jermaine Dye - all four players made significant contributions down the stretch for Arizona. Centerfielder Steve Finley (.273 31 HR's 113 RBI's) played steady all season. Arizona has been the most successful team in the Millennium League holding a whopping 41-18 record in the post season. In fact, the D-Backs are an amazing 10-1 in overall playoff series.

It took a final regular season game loss by San Francisco to Seattle that allowed St. Louis to sneak into the playoffs. This was supposed to be St. Louis' strongest season but it never panned out, largely due to inconsistent pitching. Cardinal GM-manager John Helmbrecht acquired Armando Benitez (2.98 2-5 20 Saves) during the season that had mixed results. Benitez recorded 20 saves, yet coughed up several walk off homers in devasting losses. Besides Jake Westbrook (16-12) and Dontrelle Willis (11-8), pitching is thin. But, this team was built on offense and the Redbirds have much to offer: JD Drew (.312 41 HR's, 101 RBI's, 132 Runs), Jim Edmonds (.298 47 HR's 136 RBIS's), Melvin Mora (.304 24 HR's 95 RBI's), Jeremy Burnitz (33HR's 105 RBI's), and Paul Konerko (44 HR's 122 RBI's). Oh, and by the way, Edgar Renteria and Placido Polanco combined to hit 31 HR's and 125 RBI's between them. The Cards have been involved in six playoff series - five of them ended in sweeps. St. Louis is 12-13 overall in the postseason. Prediction: D-Backs "Dynamic Duo" will shut down Redbird offense ARIZONA WINS IN 5 GAMES

#2 Florida vs. #7 Atlanta (season series tied 3-3) –
The Marlins finished strong the second half of the season going 53-26 since July 1st. Jake Peavy is the ace of the staff finishing 17-5 with a 3.19 ERA. Jon Garland was the only other pitcher in double digit wins with a 15-10 mark. Juan Rincon anchors a deep bullpen with a 2.64 ERA and 22 Saves. Vlad Guerrero, acquired in a 2003 trade with Philly, posted big numbers: .342 42 HR's 133 RBI's. Six other Marlins hit 20+ homers: Lowell (36), D. Lee (30), Dunn (28), A.Gonzalez (25), Baldelli (21), V. Martinez (20). Florida is 1-4 in the post season - losing to champs Arizona last season in their only post season appearance.

Atlanta is making their first playoff appearance since 2002 when the Braves finished with 103 wins. The Braves are just 9-10 in the post season, despite being the #1 seed in both 2000 and 2002. Atlanta is hoping for better results out of the #7 seed this year. Atlanta boasts three strong starters: Rich Harden (3.24 13-10), John Lackey (3.88 11-8) and John Thomson (14-5). Harden was the Braves 2003 #1 draft pick and Lackey was the 2002 #1 draft pick. "Mr. Captain" - Derek Jeter led the team in many batting categories: .308, 212 Hits, and 67 doubles. Jeter's doubles total far exceeding 2nd place Pujols who finished with 53. Chipper Jones quietly hit 35 HR's and drove in 96 RBI's. Atlanta sputtered the final two months of the season going just 23-22.
Prediction: Braves starters are strong as Marlins are upset ATLANTA WINS IN 7 GAMES

#3 Philadelphia vs. #6 Pittsburgh (season series tied 3-3) –
Philly finished 32-16 the final two months to win the division. Despite three division crowns, the Phillies are still looking for that elusive championship as they have just a 15-15 mark in the post season. The Phillies have steadily improved their pitching staff and now have some quality arms: Greg Maddux (3.86 15-6), Freddy Garcia (4.22 16-9), Brad Penny (4.27 8-6) and Javier Vazquez (11-10). Unsung Jason Frasor had 24 saves and a sub 2.00 ERA. The Phils always have hitting and were led this season by Mr. Pujols (.342 56 HR's 154 RBI's), Mark Loretta (.336), Miguel Tajada (38 HR's 130 RBI's) , Eric Chavez (29 HR's) and Tori Hunter (27 HR's).

The Pirates are the coldest team coming into the playoffs as the Buccos went 12-16 in August and 8-9 in September. Pittsburgh has just a 7-6 post season record as they only qualified in 2002. Brad Lidge was the Pirates #1 draft pick and he saved 34 games this year despite a high ERA (4.59). Pittsburgh has notable starters: Roy Oswalt (17-11), Kris Benson (3.86 13-9), Matt Clement (18-9) and Kerry Wood (8-1). Carlos Guillen (.344) and Randy Winn (.325 109 Runs) led the hitting.

Prediction: Phillies hitting and pitching too strong PHILADELPHIA WINS IN 6 GAMES

#4 Houston vs. #5 Minnesota (season series tied 3-3) -
Houston is another red-hot team entering the playoffs going 34-15 the final two months. The Astros can certainly put up some runs as they finished second in runs scored to the Cards. The Astros offense revolves around Lance Berkman (.305 32 HR's 108 RBI's). Lance finished second in the league in walks (128) to Barry Bonds. Moises Alou (26 HR's) and Mike Sweeney (24 HR's) added some long ball power. The 'Stros had five starters with double digit wins: Jeff Weaver (15), Tom Glavine (14), Jaret Wright (13), Jason Jonson (12) and Rodrigo Lopez (12). Billy Wagner tied for the league lead in saves (35). Houston has never won a playoff series going 5-12 in the post season.

The Twins were a remarkable story in 2004 and certainly look to be a team to be reckoned with in the future. Minnesota has a strong nucleus of good players: Ichiro (.367 116 Runs), David Ortiz (.335 53 HR's 128 RBI's), Hideki Matsui (.316 36 HR's), Johan Santana (2.80 17-8), Roy Halladay (8-4) and Josh Beckett (9-9). The Twins have never been in the post season before..
Prediction: Looks to be a real even series.... I'll go with MINNESOTA TO WIN IN 7 GAMES

Pujols Looking For Championship Ring

Philadelphia (AP) - Albert Pujols led many hitting categories last year: Batting Average(.387), Hits (252), Doubles (67), and Slugging Pct (.754). Albert continued his batting assault this year as he led the league runs scored (141), Homers (56) and RBI's (154).

However, Pujols wants a championship. Last season, Pujols hit .387 in the Phils' Quarter-Final playoffs vs. Anaheim in a losing effort (Anaheim upset Philadelphia 4 games to 3). Pujols hit just .233 in the 2002 post season as Philly was knocked out by Arizona in the Semi-Finals.

This season, Phils skipper Rick Cornell has the Phils running on all cyclinders as they overtook Minnesota and St. Louis the final month of the season. And Pujols is ready to lead his team into the playoffs. Will this be the season?

Braves Most Improved Team in 2004

The Atlanta Braves were the most improved team in the Millennium League this past season. In the 2003 season, the Braves finished a distant fourth (72-90) in the Killebrew Division. But, Atlanta finished the 2004 season with 92 wins - an improvement of 20 wins. Here is the list of all the teams and how they compared vs. the 2003 season:

Net Change in Wins vs. Previous Season:

+ 20 Atlanta
+ 14 Chicago
+ 13 Houston
+ 13 Minnesota
+ 11 Arizona
+ 8 Kansas City
+ 8 Pittsburgh
+ 2 Florida
+ 1 Boston
+ 1 Los Angeles
EVEN Oakland
EVEN San Francisco
EVEN Toronto
- 3 Anaheim
- 3 Montreal
- 6 St. Louis
- 8 Philadelphia
- 14 New York
- 22 Seattle
- 35 Cleveland

Big Unit Leads League Hurlers

There is no doubt about it - Randy Johnson is back. After struggling through an injury plagued 8-7 mark last season, Arizona's "Big Unit" returned back to his dominating self this season. Johnson compiled gaudy stats this season: 23-5, 1.92 ERA, 5 shutouts and 323 strikeouts - leading the league in all of these categories. Randy is fast closing in on

being the first pitcher in the Millennium League with 100 wins. After his third 23 game win season this year, he now has 98 career wins. He is expected to get the call in game one of the upcoming quarter-final playoffs vs. the Cardinals. . . . .

2004 Playoff Teams

Seedings have been determined for the 2004 playoffs:

1. Arizona (98-64) Division Winner
2. Florida (97-65) Division Winner
3. Philadelphia (95-67, wins tied at 3, outscored Houston 37-35) Division Winner
4. Houston (95-67) Division Winner
5. Minnesota (93-69)
6. Pittsburgh (92-70, wins tied at 3, outscored Atlanta 37-29)
7. Atlanta (92-70)
8. St. Louis (91-71)

Playoff Bracket can be viewed at: http://home.comcast.net/~helmbrej/msl/2004playoffs.htm

Ichiro Wins Batting Crown

Minnesota (AP) - Ichiro Suzuki has won the 2004 Millennium League Batting Crown. Playing for the Twins, Ichiro hit .367 which placed third all-time in Millennium League history (Pujols hit .387 in 2003 and Bonds hit .368 in 2002). Ichiro broke the single season mark for hits with 264 - previously this was held by Albert Pujols with 252 in the 2002 campaign. Suzuki was the second player taken in the 2001 draft. He looks forward to making his first post season appearance in the upcoming playoffs.

Playoff Teams Set

Barring player usage playoff penalties, post season qualifiers are now set: Division Winners: Florida, Houston, Arizona and Philadelphia. Wild Card Teams: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and St. Louis.

Playoff seedings will be announced shortly. . . . .

Phils Outlast Twins and Cards For Division Crown

The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the Aaron Division with a final record of 95-67. Two games back was Minnesota at 93-69 and St. Louis finished four games behind at 91-71. All three teams have qualified for the playoffs.

This was probably the closest and best three team division race in recent memory. The Phils wrapped up the crown by going 12-5 in September while Minnesota and St. Louis both logged 9-8 marks in September games.

The pennant race ebbed and flowed all season with each of the teams spending time in first place. Just like last year, St. Louis started out of the gate fast which included a blistering 23-8 May before giving the lead up in June as they posted a dismal 9-18 record. The Twins actually held the lead for a good portion of the summer months before losing out to the Phils in the final two weeks of the season. Interestingly, the Twins had a commanding 14-4 head-to-head record vs. the Phils this season.

Congrats to all three teams for an exciting finish!

Lowly Mariners Knock Giants Out of the Playoffs

Seattle scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth in the last game of the season to knock San Francisco out of the playoffs. With the loss, the Giants finished one game behind St. Louis for the 8th and final playoff spot.

Strat-O-Matic Report

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BOXSCORE: 2004 San Francisco Giants At 2004 Seattle Mariners        9/17/2004
 
  Giants             AB  R  H RBI AVG     Mariners           AB  R  H RBI AVG
  J.Pierre CF         4  1  1  0 .353     M.Ensberg 3B        4  1  1  0 .277  
  E.Hinske 3B         5  1  1  2 .245   D-D.Roberts PR        0  1  0  0 .290  
  B.Bonds DH          3  0  2  0 .347     J.Olerud 1B         4  0  0  0 .295  
  J.Michaels RF       5  0  1  0 .251     A.Rodriguez SS      2  2  1  1 .260  
  J.Snow 1B           2  1  1  0 .335     R.White LF          5  1  2  1 .279  
  J.Kent 2B           5  1  1  0 .252     S.Hillenbrand DH    5  0  1  1 .264  
  J.Lugo SS           5  0  3  2 .265     G.Williams RF       4  2  2  2 .355  
  A.Melhuse C         4  1  2  1 .315     F.Lopez 2B          2  0  0  0 .247  
  C.Crisp LF          5  1  1  1 .294   A-T.Wigginton PH,2B   2  0  1  0 .225  
                                          D.Wilson C          2  0  0  0 .201  
                                        B-R.Sanders PH        0  0  0  0 .291  
                                        C-B.Ausmus C          1  0  1  1 .233  
                                          M.Cameron CF        4  0  2  1 .196  
                     -- -- -- ---                            -- -- -- ---      
         Totals      38  6 13  6                 Totals      35  7 11  7
 
A-Pinch Hit For Lopez In 7th Inning
B-Pinch Hit For Wilson In 7th Inning
C-Subbed Defensively (C ) For Sanders In 8th Inning
D-Pinch Ran For Ensberg In 9th Inning
 
Giants.......... 0 0 0  0 1 2  0 3 0  -  6 13  0
Mariners........ 0 0 0  1 0 0  1 3 2  -  7 11  0
 
Giants (90-72)           IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
R.Villone                 6       3   1   1   3   1   0   3.21
S.Williamson HOLD(3rd)    1       1   1   1   2   1   0   7.27
F.Rodriguez               0 2/3   4   3   3   0   0   1   3.86
T.Worrell L(4-5) BS(5th)  1       3   2   2   2   1   0   3.92
Totals                    8 2/3  11   7   7   7   3   1
 
Mariners (45-108)        IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
C.Lidle                   6 2/3   9   3   3   4   4   1   6.44
D.Miceli                  1       1   2   2   1   1   1   3.74
C.Eldred WIN(4-4)         1 1/3   3   1   1   1   2   1   4.95
Totals                    9      13   6   6   6   7   3
 
ATTENDANCE- 10,123 DATE- Tuesday, September 17th 2004 TIME- Day WEATHER- Average
UMPIRES- Chris Guccione, Rich Rieker, Paul Emmel, Gerry Davis
T- 3:46
LEFT ON BASE- Giants:12  Mariners: 8
DOUBLE PLAYS- Giants: 2  Mariners: 2
DOUBLES- J.Pierre(30th), B.Bonds(28th), J.Kent(28th), J.Lugo(46th),
         G.Williams(9th)
HOME RUNS- E.Hinske(16th), A.Melhuse(10th), C.Crisp(11th), A.Rodriguez(35th)
STOLEN BASES- D.Roberts(35th), R.White(3rd)
WALKS- J.Pierre, B.Bonds-2, J.Snow-2, A.Melhuse, M.Ensberg, J.Olerud,
       A.Rodriguez-3, G.Williams, R.Sanders
HIT BY PITCH- J.Snow
STRIKE OUTS- E.Hinske, J.Michaels-2, J.Snow, J.Lugo, C.Crisp-2, M.Ensberg,
             J.Olerud, R.White
GIDP- J.Kent-2, M.Ensberg, S.Hillenbrand
WILD PITCHES- C.Lidle, C.Eldred
 
With the hometown crowd on the edge of their seats, Seattle Mariners came from
behind to top San Francisco Giants, 7 to 6.
 
Seattle came up with the deciding runs in the bottom of the 9th inning with 2
runs using 2 hits.  Morgan Ensberg led off and started the rally when he drew
a walk.  After an out was recorded, Roberts took off for second and slid in
with a stolen base.  Alex Rodriguez then drew a walk.  Rondell White was a
strikeout victim, unable to help out.  Shea Hillenbrand stepped into the box
and singled bringing in a run.  Gerald Williams kept the inning going and
stroked a base-hit giving Seattle the victory as 10,123 happy fans celebrated
wildly.  Seattle rapped out 11 hits for the afternoon.  
 
The victory went to Cal Eldred(4-4) who went 1 and 1/3 innings, allowing 1
run. Tim Worrell(4-5) ended up with the loss in relief.  John Ferraro was all
smiles after the ballgame, 'It sure was looking pretty dim there for a while,
but our guys never gave up - and neither did our fans - they kept cheering us
on.  What a sweet win!'

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Marlins, Astros and D-Backs Clinch Division Titles

From the Commissioners Office: The Florida Marlins, Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks have all clinched their repective divisions. Florida, sporting a
6 1/2 game lead over San Fran with just three games to play will be making their second straight post season appearance. Since July 1st, Florida has had a 51-25 record. The Marlins lost to league champs Arizona in last season's opening playoff round.

Houston put together a 32-13 final two months to overtake Atlanta for the Killebrew divsion crown. The Astros were also in last season's playoffs - losing to St. Louis in the opening round.

Finally, Arizona is back for another run at a championship. The D-Backs seem poised again with their two big guns - Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling to defend their title. Arizona currently has a 96-63 record with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Buccos.

Current Standings:
Florida 95-64
San Fran 90-72 6 1/2 GB

Houston 93-66
Atlanta 92-70 2 1/2 GB

Arizona 96-63
Pittsburgh 92-70 5 1/2 GB

Philly 92-67
Minnesota 93-69 1/2 GB
St. Louis 91-71 2 1/2 GB